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USA 2.0

Eagle Policy Initiative
76 Sections (70 ready)

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  • Vision & Values

    • The Call to Action

    • Lightcone Philosophy

    • Why USA 2.0?

    • Back to First Principles

  • The GRIN Framework

    • Introduction to GRIN

    • Generativity (G)

    • Resilience (R)

    • Evil as Parametric State

    • Ethics as Conservation Laws

  • GRIN in Action

    • How to Use GRIN Analysis

    • GRIN Analysis: Trump II Administration

    • Historical GRIN Patterns

    • GRIN vs. Hofstede: Two Lenses on Society

    • GRIN FAQ: 10 Hot-Button Issues

    • AI Personhood: The Hard Question

  • Declaration 2.0

    • Preamble

    • Self-Evident Truths 2.0

    • Modern Grievances

    • Rights of All Beings

    • Responsibilities

    • The Social Contract 2.0

    • The Declaration

  • Constitutional Framework

    • The Founding Documents

    • Executive Branch 2.0

    • Legislative Branch 2.0

    • Judicial Branch 2.0

    • Federalism 2.0

    • Amendment Process 2.0

    • Reader's Guide to the Errata

  • Policy Essays

    • The 70% Pay Cut

    • Housing: Back to 1.7 Years

    • Education: Back to 1970 Prices

    • Healthcare: The Hybrid Model

    • Social Security: Cut Taxes in Half

    • Citizen Equity Trust

    • Clean Capitalism

    • The Wealth Tax Floor

    • The Safety Bonus

    • Fiscal Discipline

    • Foreign Policy

    • Corruption & Reform

    • Climate & Environment

    • AI & Technology Rights

  • Stay and Rebuild

    • The Original Vampires

    • The Mortal Wounds

    • The Coup of 1971

    • The Consequences

    • The Debt Landscape

    • The Trigger

    • The Seven Pillars

    • The Kill Shot

    • The Firehose Redirect

    • The Trust Dividend

    • Stay and Rebuild

    • The Crisis (Fiction)

    • The First Days (Fiction)

    • The Other Side (Fiction)

    • The Retcon

    • The Extraction Machines

    • The $50,000 Stack

    • Bring Back Reagan Tax Rates

    • The 25-Year Restoration

    • Restoration Complete

    • Universal High Income

    • The Immigration Multiplier

    • You Can Still Get Rich

    • The Enslavement Tax

    • The Trade

    • The Meta-Machine

  • The Platform

    • Core Positions

    • Eagle Party Principles

    • How We Differ

  • Data & Analysis

    • Coming Soon

  • Take Action

    • Join the Movement

    • Contribute Ideas

    • Resources

By Erik Bethke
Stay and Rebuild

The Debt Landscape

1 min read
ready

$81 Trillion in Explicit Debt and Counting

The Current Debt Landscape

Explicit Debt (Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts)

  • Federal debt: ~$39 trillion (2026)
  • Business debt: ~$22 trillion
  • Household debt: ~$21 trillion (mortgages, auto, student, credit cards)
  • State & municipal: ~$4 trillion
  • Total explicit nonfinancial debt: ~$81 trillion

Shadow Leverage

  • Derivatives notional value: Estimated in the quadrillions (interest rate swaps, CDS, options)
  • Crypto margin/leverage: Unmeasured but significant (10x+ leverage on Bitcoin common)
  • Repo market overnight funding: ~$4-5 trillion daily
  • Most of this isn't "real" leverage in the classical sense, but creates cascading margin call risks if volatility spikes

The Honest Ceiling

Total notional exposure exceeds what the real economy can service. You cannot math your way out of quadrillions of notional exposure. The working economy cannot generate enough surplus to service all outstanding claims. This means haircuts are inevitable — the only question is who takes them and how.

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The Consequences

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The Trigger